A new study suggests that sustainable transport systems could double their share of passenger journeys from 30% to 60% over the next decade if key solutions are fully implemented. The findings come from the latest “Future of Mobility” report, produced by consultancy firm Arthur D. Little (ADL) in collaboration with POLIS, a network of European local and regional authorities focused on transport innovation.
The report examines the slow progress made in promoting sustainable mobility over the past 15 years. Despite the availability of greener options like public transport, cycling, and shared mobility services, their use has only increased by 10 percentage points. Currently, 70% of passenger kilometres in urban areas are still travelled by car, and the transport sector continues to account for between 25% and 40% of national carbon dioxide emissions globally, a figure that has been rising steadily since 1990.
Francois-Joseph Van Audenhove, Managing Partner at ADL and Head of Travel & Transportation Practice, noted that although some advancements have been made since the first Future of Mobility study in 2011, cars still dominate urban transport. However, Van Audenhove emphasised that the new study highlights the transformative potential of eight key solutions, which, if implemented with proper funding and governance, could significantly accelerate the transition to greener mobility.
The study was based on interviews with global mobility leaders and discussions with sector stakeholders. It provides insights for various key players, including transport authorities, mobility service providers, and investors, all of whom must work together to make sustainable mobility more widespread.
Karen Vancluysen, Secretary General of POLIS, stressed the importance of forward thinking. “We live in unpredictable times, but looking ahead is crucial. This study helps us identify trends and challenges and prioritise the solutions that can make a real difference,” she said. Vancluysen also emphasised the need for public and private sector initiatives to reinforce each other in driving the transition.
The Eight Key Solutions:
- Climate change mitigation policies – Adopting more integrated approaches to complement electrification with other strategies to maximise its impact.
- City of Proximity (15-minute city) concepts – Designing cities to be more accessible and centred around human needs.
- Dimensioning of mass transit – Developing multimodal masterplans that encourage greater use of public transport.
- New mobility services – Promoting collaboration between authorities and mobility service providers to grow shared-mobility ecosystems.
- Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) – Framing MaaS solutions in a way that aligns with mobility policy objectives and enhances the overall system.
- Autonomous mobility – Preparing for the introduction of autonomous vehicles and identifying specific use cases that could support sustainability.
- Mobility demand management – Encouraging behavioural change through regulation and cultural shifts.
- Mobility funding – Optimising funding efficiency and diversifying funding sources for mobility operators.
The report found that no single solution alone could have more than a 15% impact, reinforcing the need for a coordinated, long-term approach. Although 81% of mobility leaders viewed these solutions as important, fewer than 60% felt confident in the readiness of current mobility systems to implement them. This highlights the gap between theory and practice, and the need for greater system-level coordination to realise the full potential of sustainable mobility solutions.