European cities will require an investment of €1.5 trillion in sustainable mobility measures to meet the European Union’s Green Deal emissions targets by 2025, according to a new study. The research, titled “Cost and Benefit of the Urban Mobility Transition,” was conducted by EIT Urban Mobility, an initiative of the European Institute of Technology and Innovation (EIT). The findings will be presented at the Tomorrow.Mobility World Congress (TMWC) on November 6, a significant international event focused on promoting new sustainable urban mobility schemes.
The extensive study simulates three transition scenarios across twelve European city prototypes, showcasing the diverse urban environments within the EU. It reveals that while advancements in technology alone could potentially reduce CO2 emissions by 21% by 2030, achieving the Green Deal targets necessitates far more ambitious measures. The report states that to meet the 2030 Green Deal target, a 44% reduction in emissions is essential, presenting challenges related to public acceptance and the need for behavioural change.
Stefano Borgato, one of the researchers involved in the study, will discuss the findings during a keynote session at TMWC. He emphasises that effective measures to reduce private car usage and emissions must combine attractive public transport systems, shared mobility options, and access restrictions, such as low-emission zones. By 2030, these combined measures could increase public transport ridership by 7% and reduce private car trips by up to 16%.
The study also highlights that by 2050, all three transition scenarios analysed are projected to meet the Green Deal’s decarbonisation goals for the transport sector. This will primarily be achieved through ongoing technological advancements and the renewal of vehicle fleets. The research evaluates the impact of 39 different measures, including subsidised fleet renewals, the implementation of Low Emission Zones and Limited Traffic Zones, road charging, shared mobility initiatives, and car-free days.
Furthermore, the research estimates that meeting the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets set in the EU’s Green Deal for 2050 will necessitate at least an additional €1.5 trillion in investments. This includes €500 billion earmarked for the implementation and management of various sustainable mobility measures.
In addition to emission reductions, the study points to significant public health benefits resulting from a shift towards more active modes of transport, such as walking and cycling. By 2050, cumulative health savings could reach €1,170 per capita, driven by the advantages of a more active lifestyle. The report also anticipates improvements in road safety, with a potential reduction in road traffic fatalities by up to 70% by 2050, thanks to safer infrastructure and the adoption of intelligent transport systems.
The findings underscore the importance of prioritising public transport in achieving a fair and sustainable urban mobility transition. Public transport provides an ideal balance between reducing CO2 emissions and managing investments, while also serving as the only inclusive mobility option for all segments of the population.